Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 0.016666 0.018873 0.021265 0.024051 0.027209 0.030678 0.034781
2025-08-17 0.012804 0.015750 0.019218 0.023605 0.029014 0.035470 0.043775
2025-08-24 0.010956 0.014261 0.018378 0.023889 0.031085 0.040183 0.052587
2025-08-31 0.009485 0.012930 0.017422 0.023721 0.032344 0.043770 0.060112
2025-09-07 0.008612 0.012220 0.017117 0.024265 0.034463 0.048540 0.069533
2025-09-14 0.007502 0.011029 0.015990 0.023494 0.034599 0.050496 0.075105
2025-09-21 0.006724 0.010211 0.015277 0.023194 0.035311 0.053243 0.081970
2025-09-28 0.005964 0.009331 0.014370 0.022486 0.035297 0.054851 0.087179
2025-10-05 0.005696 0.009168 0.014513 0.023372 0.037773 0.060409 0.098978
2025-10-12 0.005385 0.008901 0.014459 0.023923 0.039740 0.065297 0.110098
2025-10-19 0.005120 0.008680 0.014450 0.024530 0.041826 0.070517 0.122193
2025-10-26 0.004738 0.008224 0.014013 0.024372 0.042594 0.073581 0.130842
2025-11-02 0.004409 0.007839 0.013671 0.024364 0.043651 0.077280 0.141048
2025-11-09 0.004041 0.007353 0.013115 0.023932 0.043919 0.079625 0.149048
2025-11-16 0.003824 0.007115 0.012970 0.024218 0.045496 0.084415 0.161955
2025-11-23 0.003561 0.006768 0.012600 0.024048 0.046199 0.087641 0.172161
2025-11-30 0.003420 0.006639 0.012615 0.024600 0.048309 0.093660 0.188301
2025-12-07 0.003121 0.006179 0.011968 0.023817 0.047751 0.094497 0.194188
2025-12-14 0.002908 0.005869 0.011584 0.023514 0.048106 0.097132 0.203925
2025-12-21 0.002667 0.005482 0.011019 0.022796 0.047553 0.097890 0.209801
2025-12-28 0.002620 0.005488 0.011234 0.023694 0.050414 0.105836 0.231639
2026-01-04 0.002540 0.005416 0.011286 0.024253 0.052600 0.112542 0.251373
2026-01-11 0.002469 0.005360 0.011363 0.024869 0.054954 0.119788 0.272939